With the State Treaty on Gambling coming into force in 2021, the German federal states have created a uniform set of rules for online gambling, sports betting, and virtual slot machines for the first time. However, this treaty was not intended to be a permanent final model from the outset. Instead, a central corrective instrument was built in: the evaluation, which is set to reach its decisive climax in 2026. This evaluation will determine whether the current regulation is considered a success or whether Germany needs to adapt or realign its gambling system.

The evaluation is part of the law

The review of the State Treaty on Gaming is not a random political process, but is expressly provided for in the treaty itself. The states have committed themselves to systematically examining, after several years of practical application, whether the objectives associated with the regulation are actually being achieved. The legislature wanted to prevent a potentially flawed or unbalanced system from becoming entrenched over the years. Instead, the regulation is to be reviewed on the basis of real market data and corrected if necessary.

The role of the GGL as a coordinating body

The central organizational interface for the evaluation is the Joint Gaming Authority of the Federal States (GGL). It consolidates the supervision of the regulated market, coordinates data collection, and establishes links between politicians, scientific experts, and enforcement authorities.

The GGL now has its own scientific staff, which is responsible for processing market data and serves as a technical interface with external institutes. The actual evaluation is carried out by independent research institutions and experts, who use this data to prepare reports and analyses.

What data is included in the evaluation?

In order to obtain a realistic picture of the market, the evaluation draws on a variety of quantitative and qualitative sources. These include, among others:

• Data from the OASIS blocking file, for example on the number of blocked players
• Information from the LUGAS limit and control system
• Gaming volume, stakes, and duration of use
• Number and market shares of licensed providers
• Withdrawals, insolvencies, or license waivers
• Tax and levy revenues
• Indications of illegal providers and their reach
• Advertising activities and visibility of legal offers
• Duration and process of certification and approval processes
• Surveys of players and addiction support facilities

Qualitative surveys are particularly important in order to include the experiences of those affected, counseling centers, and specialists in addition to the pure figures.

The central evaluation question

At its core is one key question: Does the State Treaty on Gaming achieve its own goals?

These goals are laid down by law. They include the protection of players from gambling addiction, the curbing of illegal offers, the steering of demand into the regulated market, transparency and control, and the securing of state revenues. The evaluation examines whether these goals are being achieved in practice or whether a gap has opened up between aspiration and reality.

Channeling and market attractiveness

A key evaluation criterion is what is known as channeling. This describes the proportion of players who actually play with licensed and monitored providers. The higher this proportion, the greater the effectiveness of the regulation.

The attractiveness of the legal offering also plays a role here. The evaluation considers whether the regulated products are competitive, accessible, and technically functional from the user's perspective. After all, the legal offering can only fulfill its protective and control function if it is accepted.

Technical systems as a touchstone

With OASIS and LUGAS, Germany has two central control instruments at its disposal. They are designed to prevent blocked players from continuing to play and limits from being exceeded. The evaluation examines how reliably these systems work, how often they intervene, and how they are used by players and providers. Technical malfunctions and attempts to circumvent the system are also included in the assessment.

A rolling process

The evaluation is not a one-off event in 2026. Rather, it is an ongoing process. The GGL already publishes regular status reports, which will be incorporated into the subsequent overall assessment. In this way, an overall picture will emerge over several years that is based not on snapshots but on long-term developments.

What happens after 2026?

The final evaluation report will serve as a basis for political decisions by the federal states. Depending on the results, betting limits, advertising regulations, licensing models, or technical specifications may be adjusted. Tax and organizational changes are also possible. In extreme cases, this could result in a new State Treaty on Gaming.

Conclusion

The evaluation of the State Treaty on Gaming in 2026 is the decisive test for German gaming regulation. It will show whether the combination of player protection, market control, and economic viability is working. For providers, players, and authorities, it is therefore the benchmark for the future of regulated gaming in Germany.